Critics Love Project Hail Mary, But Can Ryan Gosling Turn It Into A Box Office Hit?

Early reviews for Ryan Gosling’s Project Hail Mary are in, and critics are already loving it. 

On Rotten Tomatoes, it currently holds a near-perfect critics’ score of 95%, earning it a Certified Fresh rating. Those strong reviews should help the sci-fi film’s box office momentum ahead of its theatrical release later this month. 

Based on Andy Weir’s novel of the same name, the Phil Lord and Christopher Miller-directed film has been hailed by critics as one of the year’s best. Despite the praise, its box office success is far from guaranteed. 

Here’s what Project Hail Mary needs to overcome before becoming a box office hit.

Project Hail Mary faces tough box office odds despite rave reviews

Image credits: Amazon MGM Studios

The first major hurdle in the film’s path to box office success is its high production costs. 

According to reports, Project Hail Mary carries a hefty price tag of $248 million, reduced to roughly $200 million after tax incentives. As a result, it is one of 2026’s most expensive movies.  

Amazon MGM Studios will distribute it in North America. However, the company has yet to cross the $100 million mark at the domestic box office. 

Image credits: Amazon MGM Studios

Moreover, Lord and Miller’s highest-grossing film, 2014’s 22 Jump Street, only grossed $331.3 million worldwide. While that was a strong commercial performance, it may not be enough of a benchmark for a film with Project Hail Mary’s budget.

Gosling’s own box office record has been hit-and-miss in recent years. Although he starred in the $1.4 billion hit Barbie, much of its success was attributed to the strength of the IP and Greta Gerwig’s direction.

His other solo outings, such as 2024’s The Fall Guy and 2018’s First Man, performed modestly at the box office, grossing only $181 million and $105.7 million, respectively. 

What the Ryan Gosling-led movie needs to win at the box office

Image credits: Warner Bros.

One point of advantage for Project Hail Mary is its best-selling source material. A previous adaptation of Weir’s novel, 2015’s The Martian, grossed $630.6 million worldwide and earned widespread acclaim.

Last year’s F1 raked in $633.4 million against a $200–300 million budget and is widely considered a hit for Apple Original Films. As a result, a $600 million global total may serve as a reasonable benchmark for the Gosling-led film. 

Image credits: Apple Original Films

According to Deadline, the film is projected to gross $45 to $55 million on its domestic opening weekend. Those figures are on par with F1’s $55.6 million domestic debut, a potentially encouraging sign. 

Project Hail Mary’s release date adds another problem

Image credits: Amazon MGM Studios

Despite strong reviews and early projections, Project Hail Mary‘s release timing may present another challenge. 

The sci-fi film is scheduled to open in theaters on March 20, 2026. However, less than two weeks later, it will face major competition from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which arrives on April 1, 2026. 

It is not only a sequel to the highest-grossing video game movie of all time but is arguably an even more popular IP than the Weir novel.

For a film with such a large budget, strong theatrical legs will be crucial, and major competition could limit them. 

Alongside Gosling, Project Hail Mary also stars Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub. It follows Dr. Ryland Grace, an astronaut stranded in space who teams up with a mysterious alien creature to save Earth from destruction. 

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