Mom Uses Math To School A Covid Skeptic On The Odds Of Surviving Covid With And Without A Vaccine
Vaccines have become a huge deal these days. No surprise there, Covid-19 is still at large on a global scale and hence people are strongly encouraged to get a shot as it’s currently the only sure way to stop it.
Needless to say, the anti-vax community has been very vocal about it, objecting to vaccines for a number of reasons—they are experimental, their contents are questionable, among other things.
And while everyone’s entitled to their opinions and everyone trusts their own science, the debate on the internet never seems to stop.
So, this mom decided to step away from the chemical and medical side of things and focus on cold, hard numbers and stats, sprinkled with some swear words and righteous passion.
More Info: TikTok
You may have thought you’ll never need math in real life, but it does give you the power to drop some mad knowledge on people, just like this woman did
Image credits: @hill_deeee
Meet Hillary Dabbs, a mother of two who has recently been going viral for her mathematical explanation as to why it’s a good idea to get vaccinated against the Covid-19 virus. This came as a response to a seemingly covid and/or vaccine denier, who claimed that 99% of people who got Covid are still alive, vaccine or not.
She posted a TikTok video detailing the odds of catching Covid based on the current US statistics on the matter. This includes numbers for the chances of falling ill with and without a vaccine, the likelihood of death, related and unrelated, among other data.
Hillary Dabbs recently responded to a Covid skeptic in the form of a TikTok video with some serious math
In particular, she has calculated that, in the US, a person has a 1 in 8 chance of catching Covid and a 1 in 61 chance of dying from it if they’re unvaccinated. This is in comparison to the 1 in 13,402 chance of catching it whilst fully vaccinated, and roughly 1 in 86,500 chance of dying with the vaccine.
It doesn’t require a math wiz to understand that going from 1 in 61 to going to 1 in 86,500 is a significant change in likelihood of death, all thanks to a vaccination needle or two.
You can check out the full video below
@hill_deeeeAnswer to @semaj31273 As requested. ❤️ #fuckcovid #endthis #together #doyourpart♬ original sound – Hillary
Apart from that, what also had people listening was the ferocity that Hillary assumed with her message. Viewers can only assume that this was fueled by the fact that she had lost her own dad to Covid because she had previously posted a tribute video to her dad, and had referenced this at the end of the now viral math video by saying “we have a way for children to stop losing their parents.”
Despite this, some commenters said that the message fell on deaf ears as there were a number of comments that were calling shenanigans on Hillary’s message, asking “for sources” and whatnot.
The comment section was a mixed bag of people who were either trolling, or seriously antivax, and who were approving Dabbs’ message
But besides the stereotypical antivax backlash, there were also honest concerns from people who can’t get the vaccine because it will have adverse effects. Hillary did respond to one such comment in a video, saying she understands and isn’t bashing them for it, but still encourages them to consult a physician as, for instance, Covid vaccines are done differently than flu vaccines, so it could still be an option.
Regardless, the video managed to get nearly 180,000 views with over 11,700 likes and nearly several hundred comments shy of 4,000.
So, what are your thoughts on this? Let us know in the comment section below!
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Even if you survive covid, you can face long-term consequences. Something like that should also be considered
Anyone who thinks surviving Covid is sufficient is forgetting that long-term Covid can make one wish one were dead. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/icu-survivors-at-higher-risk-of-suicide-research-finds-implications-for-covid-19-1.5415814
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I've lost my empathy for these idiots. If they weren't taking children with them, I'd be perfectly fine with they themselves dying through their own stupidity.
too bad the deniers have a 0 in 100 chance of actually paying attention to anything factual if it goes against their preconceived bullshit
Honestly right now I just feel like stomping my feet and screaming because my dad was supposed to have brain surgery yesterday but they sent him home. All elective surgeries are cancelled because the hospital is over capacity with COVID patients. And here I didn't even realize that treating hydrocephalus was elective!
THIS. People forget that those who are ill for reasons outside their control are losing space to the damn anti-vaxers getting hospitalized with Covid.
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My 19 year old daughter who had Down syndrome was fully vaccinated and died 5 days after being diagnosed. She didn't appear very sick, and never struggled to breath. We never went anywhere but the grocery store because she refused to wear a mask (she was mentally 3). My daughter caught covid from people who weren't vaccinated and stopped wearing masks in public places. When you lose someone you love, statics don't mean a thing.
I am so sorry and angry! I just had an argument with another restaurant manager about wearing masks " well some people do not want to wear them". I have worn a mask EVERYTIME I have been in public since March of 2020. I wear it for others, I am not sick (been tested due to allergies), I am fully vaxxed, but damn it I do not even want to risk infecting anyone.
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Yo, person who is willing to take the 1 in 61 chance of catching it and dying. I bet you play the lottery too. Approximately 183 million people play it - which, for the sake of rounding, is 1 in 2 Americans! I'm an odds on winner there. Of course, if your reasoning behind not getting vaccinated is "the push from the government" (backed by scientists, BTW, this isn't just some bureaucracy wonk) I'd also bet your "research into it" was 15 minutes on Google. I can't prove this one, but I reckon it's a better bet than you winning said lottery. Tell you what, since I'm now so thoroughly pissed off my politeness circuit has misfired, you put a dollar on the lottery and I'll put a dollar on you dying and let's see who wins. I'll win less, but I'll win overall (as long as you don't insist on taking others with you). [Incoherent screaming in frustration] Where are the kitten pics?!
What really pisses me off, the selfishness of these people. I do not give a rats ass that YOU die, it is the innocent victim of your selfishness. The child with leukemia who can not get the vax yet, the mom who is allergic to the shot, those are the people you are murdering. These selfish bastards should be held financially liable ( they have no soul so they do not care)
J. Normal, I agree. My baby brother has immunodeficiency, and he can’t get the vaccine. I don’t care if you don’t want to get the vaccine, TAKE THE FCKING VACCINE. If someone who voluntarily denies the vaccine gets my brother sick, there will be bad things happening. Get. The. Vaccine.
Load More Replies... I work for a hospital system, I'm connected to a bunch of ICUs. About 90% of the ICU patients are unvaccinated, and the only deaths among unvaccinated people have been people who were seriously immunocompromised. REMEMBER, THERE IS NO CURE, THERE'S ONLY PREVENTION. SAVE YOUR OWN LIFE, GET VACCINATED.
"research I've done on the vaccine", right, your Googling and degree from YouTube University are no match for actual degreed professionals research. (replying to antivax nitwit in the comments below the article).
What? You mean sharing whackjob memes and watching crappy youtube videos doesn't count as "research?"
Load More Replies... The math assumes the incidence and mortality rate is the same for every person. The statistics, not the math, is what is important to understand. Age is the primary determinant for dying of covid. In the US, people 65 and older accounted for 78% (511,673) of covid deaths. People 0-29 accounted for less than 1% (3,651). People aged 30-64 accounted for 22% (143,430). Not making a case for or against vaccinating. But a logical deduction from a false premise is very misleading.
You are just making a second relationship with the statistical, the premise is not false is just not precise enough, but even then the information is sufficient to make a good enough conclusion. Most of the time you dont need perfect information, just enough to make a sufficiently good conclusion to take action.
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I wonder how accurate her numbers are given that most cases of covid have probably gone unreported. Also, I read an article explaining how the number of total deaths (for everything) far exceeded the expected number of deaths based on the previous year. This indicated that there were many deaths related to covid that went unrecognized as such. Especially early on, when there were so many health complications and factor that were unknown. We still don't know the long term effects of having covid, or what kind of irreparable damage it does to the body.
One problem with the hospitals being overwhelmed is that people with other serious conditions can't get beds. So at least some of those extra deaths may be for things like heart disease or tumours that could have been fixed with surgery in a normal year.
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I think all hospitals, doctors offices and rapid care clinics should be given the free choice to prioritize vaccinated people over those who remain unvaccinated.
They've had to start doing that in Idaho in the U.S. It's tragic. It's not a situation that anyone wants to be in. Hospitals there are so overcrowded that treatment has to be given to those most likely to survive. Others are put in classrooms or conference rooms and given comfort care, but nothing that could have a rare chance of saving their lives. Being vaccinated, you're much more likely to survive than if you're unvaccinated, so unvaccinated people are winding up on palative care only. There aren't enough resources. Not enough people are vaccinated. It didn't have to be this way.
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These loons are still pushing the "You have a 99.99% chance of surviving it if you catch it" myth. They've conveniently overlooked the 2.8% death rate worldwide. Last time I looked, 100-2.8=97.2%. Then too, death isn't the only bad outcome. Some people who've had it will never be the same again.
Sliiiightly lower, as some ppl have had it twice, so maybe a one in 62 chance. Get the damn shot.
Why is she referred to as "mom" when she doesn't mention her kids at all? If this were a man, would it say, "Dad uses math to school covid skeptic..." ?
I'm sorry, but this woman is really bad at math. You may have a 1-in-8 chance of catching COVID, but you only have a 1-in-61 chance of dying from it IF you already have it. Right now in the US, an individual unvaccinated American has a 12% chance of being infected (41m / 330m) and a 0.01% chance of both catching the virus AND dying from it. And keep in mind that the positive cases may include people who've tested positive more than once. Furthermore, the early COVID death statistics include anyone who died WITH COVID, but not necessarily FROM COVID. I am not anti-vax and I do not deny that COVID is a bad lil' bug, but it's nowhere near as dangerous as the media makes it out to be (per the CDC's own data).
Her math is misleading but her sentiment is right. The flaw in her math is that as time passes, more and more people will get COVID. That makes it seem like the odds of getting it are higher. She can say "as of "date" 1:64 Americans have had COVID. But she can't infer probability on something that is continuing to spread. Eventually everyone will get COVID. It's too transmittable. So the reality is that, over time, there is a 99.99 % chance you will get COViD. Deaths between the vaccinated and unvaccinated are significantly different with the vaccinated much better protected against hospitalization and death. The take away here is that due to the large number of unvaccinated people, 99.99% of everyone will get COVID. It comes down to how you will ride out the disease and odds of dying. The vaccinated generally have it easy and low chance of death. The unvaccinated, harder ride being sick and much higher chance of dying.
"Taking your chances" with COVID by not getting vaxxed is like playing Russian roulette with only one empty chamber.
That’s like saying you have a 1 in 6 chance of survival. Lol. You know that only .02% are dying right?
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Due to health condition I'm not able to take most vaccines, therefore this one for corona poses a risk to me too, and I can't take it. It kinda starts to scare me how angry people are at each other about that topic, i don't want anyone to verbally attack me or locking me up for incapabilities i have no control over.
There is a HUGE difference between INvoluntarily unvaccinated (that's you) and the voluntarily unvaccinated (that's the people who are selfishly pitting THEIR "freedoms" ahead of YOUR health). We get vaccinated for you. No one is going to attack or lock you up - you're among the ones the rest us who believe in a function society (that's a willing collection of people, not individuals who are forced to work together) are working to keep safe. And I'm sorry if that comes across as condescending - my passive aggression is aimed at those who WOULD attack you.
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If you are medically able to get the vaccine and you don't you should be at the back of the queue if you need medical assistance because you refused it. Everyone else should take precedence.
Umm, no. She's really bad at statistics. 330million people divided by 670 thousand deaths is about 1 in 500, or 0.02%. Not 1 in 61. And that's for unvaccinated.
Common Core math rears it's stupid head - this woman is an idiot.
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New VAERS numbers are out. 701,559 Adverse Events 60,741 Hospitalizations 80,393 Urgent Care 6,637 Heart Attacks 5,765 Myocarditis 1,862 Miscarriages 19,210 Disabled 14,925 Deaths 100% Safe and Effective https://openvaers.com/covid-data
VAERS is an open reporting site, where anyone can report anything that happened after receiving a vaccine. It is merely the FIRST step in researching vaccine effects - such reports then need to be investigated to see if 1. It actually happened (there are plenty of people looking to inflate the statistics), 2. Whether the event is related to the vaccine 3. Whether the increased risk is worse than the increased risk of not being vaccinated. All this takes time. In a hurry? Then look up the rates of these events before and after the vaccine rollout. If millions get something causing harm, it would cause INCREASE in these events.
Load More Replies... She forgot to factor in "Moral Hazard". The CARES act sends federal reimbursement to hospitals based on the number of reported covid cases... therefore they are incented to over report. She also neglects to factor in that according to the CDC, you are not considered "fully vaccinated" until 7 days after your second shot. That's a 21 day window - negative reactions (including death) typically happen within that window, so they are not reported as vaccine injuries. She is not as good at math as she thinks.
Exactly, however Boredpanda is far left, so none of these important facts are shown.
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To anyone who can answer with credibility, I am still trying to find some data regarding people with Lupus or other autoimmune disorders and their chance of getting COVID and outcomes of their treatment. Medications that treat Lupus are being hailed as treatment for COVID, so are we preemptively treating ourselves so we don't get serious COVID or is our immune suppressed status make us more likely to get COVID and have serious complications? So confused!!!!!!
Have you read this? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32927376/
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Those breakthrough cases aren't accurate at all I know a handful of people who have gotten covid and are vaccinated. You're telling me I know 5 out of those 12,000 breakthrough cases? Yea okay...
My father-in-law has COVID right now and was vaccinated. Case in point. Vaccination does not equal safety or supremacy. I am not vaccinated, got COVID and am totally back to normal. My body, my choice. Turns out it was the right choice.
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So 670000 (died) in 42 millions (infected) = one in 61??😂. She is f** great with math indeed. I am persuaded!
is there a word worth censoring that starts with an f and has three letters?
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Maybe we should spread more info about our personal experiences regarding the vaccines, so people can see it's no big deal. So, let me start. I'm 32. I've got my 1st shot in early September, my second one is scheduled for mid. October. I was in the last days of my menstrual week, and I've got sensitive kidneys. (I'm a kidney patient, but in the early stages, so I can lead a normal life, but I'm a special needs person when it comes to diet.) I got a BioNTech. My symptoms were almost none, but I took a rest at home as suggested, just in case. My super mild symptoms, wasn't even sure if it's vaccine or menstruation, were the following. I didn't feel anything strange for an hour or so, by the time I got home from the vaccination centre (by taxi), I kind of did sweat sliiiiiiightly more than usual, but it was really really mild. I felt kinda hungry at this point, so I had my meal. I lied down and took some Orange Road to read, and it made me feel sleepy, so I took a nap. Slept 2 good hours. (cont.)
In the evening, I felt perfectly fine. Took a long walk by the sea with my husband. The next day I woke up with a bit of a neck pain, but it wasn't so paralysingly painful. I did apply a gel sticker (one of those bends used for muscle pain). My muscle where I was vaccinated was hurting a bit too, as if I was lifting something heavy the day before. Besides these, I thought I was fine, so in the early evening/late afternoon, I took a not too long - not so short walk about the streets in the neighbourhood, and I noticed I was getting kinda tired, so I headed home. I ate something light for dinner, played some Tales of Vesperia and went to sleep. (cont.)
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r/hermancainaward s full of people who decided to "take their chance."
I had too remove myself from Facebook and Twitter after spending most my days pointing out other peoples mistakes in math concerning covid , 99.9% survival rate and all that , got too much , they either dont understand math or dont want to be told they're wrong , either way i got sick of abuse from simply saying "your math is wrong"
I absolutely agree with the sentiment, at the same time this information is inaccurate and factually incorrect. Her initial premise was that by dividing 330 million (number of Americans) by the 41 million who have had covid, it gives us our chance of getting covid. But, this *only* tells us that 1 in 8 Americans have had covid. It tell us that we have a 1 in 8 *chance* of catching covid. Probability is determined by many different factors including whether a person is or isn't vaccinated, whether the person has an underlying health condition, age, mask use, how high the vaccination rate of the area (hint-when you have herd immunity or enough people vaccinated even those unvaccinated are more protected and their probability of catching covid goes down compared to other unvaccinated people) and on and on. It’s not just dividing a few numbers and turning them into percentages or ratios. It’s complex enough that teams of engineer are struggling to figure out.
correction, It *doesn't* tell us that we have a 1 in 8 chance of getting covid.
Load More Replies... CDC announced today they have been withholding data from the public, including number of hospitalizations by vaccination status. And people wonder why others refuse to get the shot. RED FLAGS
Ok but some people’s deaths are being incorrectly cited as being due to Covid, in spite of the person never actually testing positive for it. Also people are being being recorded as dying ‘with Covid’ rather than ‘OF Covid’, so are these being included too? I can’t understand how different sources are saying it has a survival rate of up to 97% but then 1 in 66 are dying. I’m not trying to be controversial, I’m just annoyed that there is no consensus on the survival rate and that different governments have different survival rates (or is that due to varying other factors of each country’s citizens such as socioeconomic status)?
Why do people even try anymore. It's flat out obvious that anti-vaxxers aren't getting the jab, and no matter how much logic you apply to bring them to the river, this horse isn't drinking. A key lesson is that the Dunning–Kruger effect is very real and probably affects more people than we initially believe. They'll drum up another stupid response to the math thinking that they're immunologists.
The people that got vaxxed will die, not all, but many and others will continue to be permanently disabled.
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Numbers for the first example for unvac. people will be off since you are including the vac. in the equation. Just saying.
I did the same math for my country (Italy) and the poster's results are off by several orders of magnitude. The main problem here is the number of breakthrough cases; CDC says that there have been 12,908 breakthrough infections *that resulted in hospitalization or death* of the vaccinated person (source: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html) She then proceeds to compare it with the number of unvaccinated who simply risked contracting COVID (not getting to the hospital or dying from it). It's like comparing apples and oranges. There are several other methodological problems in her reasoning, but this is the biggest one. The good news is, even with the correct numbers, the odds are still highly in favour of vaccines - so get your shot today if you haven't already!
No they are not, VAERS data, monitor Israel as IR is the model for what's coming to the rest of the world.
Load More Replies... She means well, and everybody should get vaccinated. BUT as many has pointed out, her math dont add upp as she uses flawed numbers and assumptions. Please check your numbers and logic so you can redo the video. It will still be terrifying, but in a correct way.
They are actually not tracking breakthrough cases so not sure where she got this number from. I bet its way higher than 12000. Theres no communal database tracking this.
To be clear, they state that what they do know is likely an under report especially due to asymptomatic and mild cases that go completely unreported. The one thing that's clear is that vaccinated adults have a lower chance of death due to COVID.
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While vaccination helps a lot, in her numbers she forgot the time. The 1:8 chance was in nearly 2 years, while her break-through numbers are based on 6 weeks. To level this up, she must divide the 86500 by 16, it is still a why lower risk of 1:5400.
So, expanding on your point and for the sake of comparison, 1 in 5400 (catching it and dying *after* vaccination) is the same as 1 person in my *entire* village, while the 1 in 61 chance (of catching it and dying without vaccination) is the same as 1 person in just my *street* - and that's repeated for every street in my village. While not as dramatic as 86500, it's still a big frickin difference. (And I'm sorry, I'm still not calm enough for full coherence)
Load More Replies... We are in a form of warfare against a disease. In any war people are conscripted - either as a soldier or a medic. Same in this case:- you get vaccinated or you get put into community service in a Covid ward. Hold hands with the sick and dying, help bathe them, change their clothes, and etc. If you get sick doing so, well you are going to have to face Covid sometime. What better place than in a hospital.
You're probably roughly right on the math, but at the same time, you are barking up the wrong tree. It's different belief system at work, not a question of science and logic.
I am disgusted I live in a world with people that actually think like you.
Load More Replies... Swiss cheese lungs for the remainder of your life. Or two jabs. Hmmm, I dunno, man. Getting the shot seems a whole lot better to me. I'm a fan of breathing.
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We will remember, you, on the other hand will not because you are a denier. If after 12 months (May 2022 for me) I'm still alive will you apologize and say "I was wrong, I am a twat"?
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That is what is so disturbing to me. She's shaming people who may be hesitant to vaccinate and her numbers are incorrect. Shame often makes people dig their heals in. So, thanks to her, more people may dig their heals in which means less vaccinations which means my under twelve will be less protected until they can get the vaccine. Disinformation makes me angry. Doesn't really matter to me on which side of the debate.
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Even if you survive covid, you can face long-term consequences. Something like that should also be considered
Anyone who thinks surviving Covid is sufficient is forgetting that long-term Covid can make one wish one were dead. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/icu-survivors-at-higher-risk-of-suicide-research-finds-implications-for-covid-19-1.5415814
Load More Replies... I've lost my empathy for these idiots. If they weren't taking children with them, I'd be perfectly fine with they themselves dying through their own stupidity.
too bad the deniers have a 0 in 100 chance of actually paying attention to anything factual if it goes against their preconceived bullshit
Honestly right now I just feel like stomping my feet and screaming because my dad was supposed to have brain surgery yesterday but they sent him home. All elective surgeries are cancelled because the hospital is over capacity with COVID patients. And here I didn't even realize that treating hydrocephalus was elective!
THIS. People forget that those who are ill for reasons outside their control are losing space to the damn anti-vaxers getting hospitalized with Covid.
Load More Replies... My 19 year old daughter who had Down syndrome was fully vaccinated and died 5 days after being diagnosed. She didn't appear very sick, and never struggled to breath. We never went anywhere but the grocery store because she refused to wear a mask (she was mentally 3). My daughter caught covid from people who weren't vaccinated and stopped wearing masks in public places. When you lose someone you love, statics don't mean a thing.
I am so sorry and angry! I just had an argument with another restaurant manager about wearing masks " well some people do not want to wear them". I have worn a mask EVERYTIME I have been in public since March of 2020. I wear it for others, I am not sick (been tested due to allergies), I am fully vaxxed, but damn it I do not even want to risk infecting anyone.
Load More Replies... Yo, person who is willing to take the 1 in 61 chance of catching it and dying. I bet you play the lottery too. Approximately 183 million people play it - which, for the sake of rounding, is 1 in 2 Americans! I'm an odds on winner there. Of course, if your reasoning behind not getting vaccinated is "the push from the government" (backed by scientists, BTW, this isn't just some bureaucracy wonk) I'd also bet your "research into it" was 15 minutes on Google. I can't prove this one, but I reckon it's a better bet than you winning said lottery. Tell you what, since I'm now so thoroughly pissed off my politeness circuit has misfired, you put a dollar on the lottery and I'll put a dollar on you dying and let's see who wins. I'll win less, but I'll win overall (as long as you don't insist on taking others with you). [Incoherent screaming in frustration] Where are the kitten pics?!
What really pisses me off, the selfishness of these people. I do not give a rats ass that YOU die, it is the innocent victim of your selfishness. The child with leukemia who can not get the vax yet, the mom who is allergic to the shot, those are the people you are murdering. These selfish bastards should be held financially liable ( they have no soul so they do not care)
J. Normal, I agree. My baby brother has immunodeficiency, and he can’t get the vaccine. I don’t care if you don’t want to get the vaccine, TAKE THE FCKING VACCINE. If someone who voluntarily denies the vaccine gets my brother sick, there will be bad things happening. Get. The. Vaccine.
Load More Replies... I work for a hospital system, I'm connected to a bunch of ICUs. About 90% of the ICU patients are unvaccinated, and the only deaths among unvaccinated people have been people who were seriously immunocompromised. REMEMBER, THERE IS NO CURE, THERE'S ONLY PREVENTION. SAVE YOUR OWN LIFE, GET VACCINATED.
"research I've done on the vaccine", right, your Googling and degree from YouTube University are no match for actual degreed professionals research. (replying to antivax nitwit in the comments below the article).
What? You mean sharing whackjob memes and watching crappy youtube videos doesn't count as "research?"
Load More Replies... The math assumes the incidence and mortality rate is the same for every person. The statistics, not the math, is what is important to understand. Age is the primary determinant for dying of covid. In the US, people 65 and older accounted for 78% (511,673) of covid deaths. People 0-29 accounted for less than 1% (3,651). People aged 30-64 accounted for 22% (143,430). Not making a case for or against vaccinating. But a logical deduction from a false premise is very misleading.
You are just making a second relationship with the statistical, the premise is not false is just not precise enough, but even then the information is sufficient to make a good enough conclusion. Most of the time you dont need perfect information, just enough to make a sufficiently good conclusion to take action.
Load More Replies... I wonder how accurate her numbers are given that most cases of covid have probably gone unreported. Also, I read an article explaining how the number of total deaths (for everything) far exceeded the expected number of deaths based on the previous year. This indicated that there were many deaths related to covid that went unrecognized as such. Especially early on, when there were so many health complications and factor that were unknown. We still don't know the long term effects of having covid, or what kind of irreparable damage it does to the body.
One problem with the hospitals being overwhelmed is that people with other serious conditions can't get beds. So at least some of those extra deaths may be for things like heart disease or tumours that could have been fixed with surgery in a normal year.
Load More Replies... I think all hospitals, doctors offices and rapid care clinics should be given the free choice to prioritize vaccinated people over those who remain unvaccinated.
They've had to start doing that in Idaho in the U.S. It's tragic. It's not a situation that anyone wants to be in. Hospitals there are so overcrowded that treatment has to be given to those most likely to survive. Others are put in classrooms or conference rooms and given comfort care, but nothing that could have a rare chance of saving their lives. Being vaccinated, you're much more likely to survive than if you're unvaccinated, so unvaccinated people are winding up on palative care only. There aren't enough resources. Not enough people are vaccinated. It didn't have to be this way.
Load More Replies... These loons are still pushing the "You have a 99.99% chance of surviving it if you catch it" myth. They've conveniently overlooked the 2.8% death rate worldwide. Last time I looked, 100-2.8=97.2%. Then too, death isn't the only bad outcome. Some people who've had it will never be the same again.
Sliiiightly lower, as some ppl have had it twice, so maybe a one in 62 chance. Get the damn shot.
Why is she referred to as "mom" when she doesn't mention her kids at all? If this were a man, would it say, "Dad uses math to school covid skeptic..." ?
I'm sorry, but this woman is really bad at math. You may have a 1-in-8 chance of catching COVID, but you only have a 1-in-61 chance of dying from it IF you already have it. Right now in the US, an individual unvaccinated American has a 12% chance of being infected (41m / 330m) and a 0.01% chance of both catching the virus AND dying from it. And keep in mind that the positive cases may include people who've tested positive more than once. Furthermore, the early COVID death statistics include anyone who died WITH COVID, but not necessarily FROM COVID. I am not anti-vax and I do not deny that COVID is a bad lil' bug, but it's nowhere near as dangerous as the media makes it out to be (per the CDC's own data).
Her math is misleading but her sentiment is right. The flaw in her math is that as time passes, more and more people will get COVID. That makes it seem like the odds of getting it are higher. She can say "as of "date" 1:64 Americans have had COVID. But she can't infer probability on something that is continuing to spread. Eventually everyone will get COVID. It's too transmittable. So the reality is that, over time, there is a 99.99 % chance you will get COViD. Deaths between the vaccinated and unvaccinated are significantly different with the vaccinated much better protected against hospitalization and death. The take away here is that due to the large number of unvaccinated people, 99.99% of everyone will get COVID. It comes down to how you will ride out the disease and odds of dying. The vaccinated generally have it easy and low chance of death. The unvaccinated, harder ride being sick and much higher chance of dying.
"Taking your chances" with COVID by not getting vaxxed is like playing Russian roulette with only one empty chamber.
That’s like saying you have a 1 in 6 chance of survival. Lol. You know that only .02% are dying right?
Load More Replies... Due to health condition I'm not able to take most vaccines, therefore this one for corona poses a risk to me too, and I can't take it. It kinda starts to scare me how angry people are at each other about that topic, i don't want anyone to verbally attack me or locking me up for incapabilities i have no control over.
There is a HUGE difference between INvoluntarily unvaccinated (that's you) and the voluntarily unvaccinated (that's the people who are selfishly pitting THEIR "freedoms" ahead of YOUR health). We get vaccinated for you. No one is going to attack or lock you up - you're among the ones the rest us who believe in a function society (that's a willing collection of people, not individuals who are forced to work together) are working to keep safe. And I'm sorry if that comes across as condescending - my passive aggression is aimed at those who WOULD attack you.
Load More Replies... If you are medically able to get the vaccine and you don't you should be at the back of the queue if you need medical assistance because you refused it. Everyone else should take precedence.
Umm, no. She's really bad at statistics. 330million people divided by 670 thousand deaths is about 1 in 500, or 0.02%. Not 1 in 61. And that's for unvaccinated.
Common Core math rears it's stupid head - this woman is an idiot.
Load More Replies... New VAERS numbers are out. 701,559 Adverse Events 60,741 Hospitalizations 80,393 Urgent Care 6,637 Heart Attacks 5,765 Myocarditis 1,862 Miscarriages 19,210 Disabled 14,925 Deaths 100% Safe and Effective https://openvaers.com/covid-data
VAERS is an open reporting site, where anyone can report anything that happened after receiving a vaccine. It is merely the FIRST step in researching vaccine effects - such reports then need to be investigated to see if 1. It actually happened (there are plenty of people looking to inflate the statistics), 2. Whether the event is related to the vaccine 3. Whether the increased risk is worse than the increased risk of not being vaccinated. All this takes time. In a hurry? Then look up the rates of these events before and after the vaccine rollout. If millions get something causing harm, it would cause INCREASE in these events.
Load More Replies... She forgot to factor in "Moral Hazard". The CARES act sends federal reimbursement to hospitals based on the number of reported covid cases... therefore they are incented to over report. She also neglects to factor in that according to the CDC, you are not considered "fully vaccinated" until 7 days after your second shot. That's a 21 day window - negative reactions (including death) typically happen within that window, so they are not reported as vaccine injuries. She is not as good at math as she thinks.
Exactly, however Boredpanda is far left, so none of these important facts are shown.
Load More Replies... To anyone who can answer with credibility, I am still trying to find some data regarding people with Lupus or other autoimmune disorders and their chance of getting COVID and outcomes of their treatment. Medications that treat Lupus are being hailed as treatment for COVID, so are we preemptively treating ourselves so we don't get serious COVID or is our immune suppressed status make us more likely to get COVID and have serious complications? So confused!!!!!!
Have you read this? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32927376/
Load More Replies... Those breakthrough cases aren't accurate at all I know a handful of people who have gotten covid and are vaccinated. You're telling me I know 5 out of those 12,000 breakthrough cases? Yea okay...
My father-in-law has COVID right now and was vaccinated. Case in point. Vaccination does not equal safety or supremacy. I am not vaccinated, got COVID and am totally back to normal. My body, my choice. Turns out it was the right choice.
Load More Replies... So 670000 (died) in 42 millions (infected) = one in 61??😂. She is f** great with math indeed. I am persuaded!
is there a word worth censoring that starts with an f and has three letters?
Load More Replies... Maybe we should spread more info about our personal experiences regarding the vaccines, so people can see it's no big deal. So, let me start. I'm 32. I've got my 1st shot in early September, my second one is scheduled for mid. October. I was in the last days of my menstrual week, and I've got sensitive kidneys. (I'm a kidney patient, but in the early stages, so I can lead a normal life, but I'm a special needs person when it comes to diet.) I got a BioNTech. My symptoms were almost none, but I took a rest at home as suggested, just in case. My super mild symptoms, wasn't even sure if it's vaccine or menstruation, were the following. I didn't feel anything strange for an hour or so, by the time I got home from the vaccination centre (by taxi), I kind of did sweat sliiiiiiightly more than usual, but it was really really mild. I felt kinda hungry at this point, so I had my meal. I lied down and took some Orange Road to read, and it made me feel sleepy, so I took a nap. Slept 2 good hours. (cont.)
In the evening, I felt perfectly fine. Took a long walk by the sea with my husband. The next day I woke up with a bit of a neck pain, but it wasn't so paralysingly painful. I did apply a gel sticker (one of those bends used for muscle pain). My muscle where I was vaccinated was hurting a bit too, as if I was lifting something heavy the day before. Besides these, I thought I was fine, so in the early evening/late afternoon, I took a not too long - not so short walk about the streets in the neighbourhood, and I noticed I was getting kinda tired, so I headed home. I ate something light for dinner, played some Tales of Vesperia and went to sleep. (cont.)
Load More Replies... r/hermancainaward s full of people who decided to "take their chance."
I had too remove myself from Facebook and Twitter after spending most my days pointing out other peoples mistakes in math concerning covid , 99.9% survival rate and all that , got too much , they either dont understand math or dont want to be told they're wrong , either way i got sick of abuse from simply saying "your math is wrong"
I absolutely agree with the sentiment, at the same time this information is inaccurate and factually incorrect. Her initial premise was that by dividing 330 million (number of Americans) by the 41 million who have had covid, it gives us our chance of getting covid. But, this *only* tells us that 1 in 8 Americans have had covid. It tell us that we have a 1 in 8 *chance* of catching covid. Probability is determined by many different factors including whether a person is or isn't vaccinated, whether the person has an underlying health condition, age, mask use, how high the vaccination rate of the area (hint-when you have herd immunity or enough people vaccinated even those unvaccinated are more protected and their probability of catching covid goes down compared to other unvaccinated people) and on and on. It’s not just dividing a few numbers and turning them into percentages or ratios. It’s complex enough that teams of engineer are struggling to figure out.
correction, It *doesn't* tell us that we have a 1 in 8 chance of getting covid.
Load More Replies... CDC announced today they have been withholding data from the public, including number of hospitalizations by vaccination status. And people wonder why others refuse to get the shot. RED FLAGS
Ok but some people’s deaths are being incorrectly cited as being due to Covid, in spite of the person never actually testing positive for it. Also people are being being recorded as dying ‘with Covid’ rather than ‘OF Covid’, so are these being included too? I can’t understand how different sources are saying it has a survival rate of up to 97% but then 1 in 66 are dying. I’m not trying to be controversial, I’m just annoyed that there is no consensus on the survival rate and that different governments have different survival rates (or is that due to varying other factors of each country’s citizens such as socioeconomic status)?
Why do people even try anymore. It's flat out obvious that anti-vaxxers aren't getting the jab, and no matter how much logic you apply to bring them to the river, this horse isn't drinking. A key lesson is that the Dunning–Kruger effect is very real and probably affects more people than we initially believe. They'll drum up another stupid response to the math thinking that they're immunologists.
The people that got vaxxed will die, not all, but many and others will continue to be permanently disabled.
Load More Replies... Numbers for the first example for unvac. people will be off since you are including the vac. in the equation. Just saying.
I did the same math for my country (Italy) and the poster's results are off by several orders of magnitude. The main problem here is the number of breakthrough cases; CDC says that there have been 12,908 breakthrough infections *that resulted in hospitalization or death* of the vaccinated person (source: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html) She then proceeds to compare it with the number of unvaccinated who simply risked contracting COVID (not getting to the hospital or dying from it). It's like comparing apples and oranges. There are several other methodological problems in her reasoning, but this is the biggest one. The good news is, even with the correct numbers, the odds are still highly in favour of vaccines - so get your shot today if you haven't already!
No they are not, VAERS data, monitor Israel as IR is the model for what's coming to the rest of the world.
Load More Replies... She means well, and everybody should get vaccinated. BUT as many has pointed out, her math dont add upp as she uses flawed numbers and assumptions. Please check your numbers and logic so you can redo the video. It will still be terrifying, but in a correct way.
They are actually not tracking breakthrough cases so not sure where she got this number from. I bet its way higher than 12000. Theres no communal database tracking this.
To be clear, they state that what they do know is likely an under report especially due to asymptomatic and mild cases that go completely unreported. The one thing that's clear is that vaccinated adults have a lower chance of death due to COVID.
Load More Replies... While vaccination helps a lot, in her numbers she forgot the time. The 1:8 chance was in nearly 2 years, while her break-through numbers are based on 6 weeks. To level this up, she must divide the 86500 by 16, it is still a why lower risk of 1:5400.
So, expanding on your point and for the sake of comparison, 1 in 5400 (catching it and dying *after* vaccination) is the same as 1 person in my *entire* village, while the 1 in 61 chance (of catching it and dying without vaccination) is the same as 1 person in just my *street* - and that's repeated for every street in my village. While not as dramatic as 86500, it's still a big frickin difference. (And I'm sorry, I'm still not calm enough for full coherence)
Load More Replies... We are in a form of warfare against a disease. In any war people are conscripted - either as a soldier or a medic. Same in this case:- you get vaccinated or you get put into community service in a Covid ward. Hold hands with the sick and dying, help bathe them, change their clothes, and etc. If you get sick doing so, well you are going to have to face Covid sometime. What better place than in a hospital.
You're probably roughly right on the math, but at the same time, you are barking up the wrong tree. It's different belief system at work, not a question of science and logic.
I am disgusted I live in a world with people that actually think like you.
Load More Replies... Swiss cheese lungs for the remainder of your life. Or two jabs. Hmmm, I dunno, man. Getting the shot seems a whole lot better to me. I'm a fan of breathing.
Load More Replies... We will remember, you, on the other hand will not because you are a denier. If after 12 months (May 2022 for me) I'm still alive will you apologize and say "I was wrong, I am a twat"?
Load More Replies... That is what is so disturbing to me. She's shaming people who may be hesitant to vaccinate and her numbers are incorrect. Shame often makes people dig their heals in. So, thanks to her, more people may dig their heals in which means less vaccinations which means my under twelve will be less protected until they can get the vaccine. Disinformation makes me angry. Doesn't really matter to me on which side of the debate.
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