Tumblr Users Explain Survival Bias And How It Affects Our Society
Every once in a while, we hear someone say “autism didn’t exist before vaccines” or “so many people are depressed, this rarely happened a couple of hundred years ago”. And while sometimes such phrases might seem to have a point, oftentimes it’s nothing more than a logical fallacies example.
Some Tumblr users gathered for a discussion around the topic, addressing the fact that many people who share the “mental health is a trend” type of wisdom, forget some very crucial details.
Tumblr users jumped right into a discussion connecting survival bias with people claiming that many illnesses are “modern”
Image credits: Marco Verch
It is similar to the WWII aircraft situation, where statisticians had to analyze data of the damaged planes that returned from the field and determine which parts to improve. They looked at the diagrams and decided that parts showing most damage needed to be improved and protected. That seems like logical reasoning, right? However, a Hungarian mathematician Abraham Wald spotted the error in their thinking, pointing out that the statisticians were looking at the damage to the planes that made it back, not those who were lost to enemy fire. This means that the most damaged areas simply showed that the plane survived when taking hits to those places. What they were missing were the areas that showed minimal or no damage as those were where planes that didn’t return took critical damage. That is one of the best examples of survival (or survivorship) bias.
Survivorship bias refers to a phenomenon where one focuses on the people or things that made it past a certain selection process and overlooking those that did not. That often leads to overly optimistic beliefs and irrational thinking because failures are ignored. Tumblr uses to argue that the survivorship bias is to blame for many arguments people nowadays use against modern medicine and social changes.
Someone then offered a more in-depth explanation of the phenomenon
While many people like to point out that such medical conditions as autism didn’t even exist “back in the day”, they fail to see that just because the term didn’t exist, that doesn’t mean that people with neurodiversity didn’t. The term itself was adopted in 1938 by Hans Asperger and medical records show that descriptions of various symptoms were recorded long before autism was named.
Image credits: pxhere
One person contributed to the discussion by offering a different opinion
21Kviews
Share on FacebookMy great aunt (90 now) had always 'stomach pain' after drinking milk. Back in the day her parents tought that she was being picky and forced her to drink it and once she became an adult she just stopped drinking milk. If she was born in my generation they would have probably just doagnosed her with some lactose intolerance...
A LOT of people have lactose intolerance - one study estimated that up to 40% of Americans have it. It's a matter of degree, though. Some people can tolerate some dairy, others (holds up hand) get queasy with a lot less.
Load More Replies...It is always funny when people say things like 'we didnt had cancer before'. My granpa died of stomach cancer in the early 70s. I just know because my father (now a doctor) told me. Most people back then just said 'He got sick and died'. We did have all this diseases, they were just unknown to the public
Altough I do believe that allergies migh increase because of lack of exposure to dirt during childhood, pollution and chemicals. The same with depression and anxiety; they exisred before but I wouldnt be surprised if they became more normal because of the extreme fast rithm of life nowadays.
Load More Replies...Mildly autistic folks were considered eccentric. Severely autistic folks were locked up. I do genealogy and it's so sad when I find a family member in the census record of an institution.
It is relatively recently that well-functioning autistic people have been recognised as having a condition at all. When I grew up in the 80s you basically had to be non-verbal to get an autism diagnosis.
Load More Replies...My grandma told me about polio, about the "long prams" people were using. For kids that became adults, that were partly parallelized by polio. .. then us kids got vaccinated at school ! ( yeah i'm 50 something years old ). Then we never saw polio again. https://www.who.int/features/qa/07/en/
I am finding the outbreaks of measles scary! Because some kid i knew died of it. Other kids left school and never came back. sorry this is all disorganised thinking.
Load More Replies...I was born in 1955. I remember my mother taking us children to get the polio vaccine that was in a sugar cube. I also had red measles (at my grandma's house and had to be kept in a dark room because the light hurt my eyes) and chicken pox. When I was a teenager, my mother took me to go get the rubella shot. The doctor refused to administer that one until he was convinced I was not pregnant. I made sure my own children (now in their 30's and 40's) had all their shots! Why would anyone want their children to get so sick?
For me, it was chicken pox in first grade, measles in second grade. But only mild cases. I had already had the more dangerous German Measles vaccine, amongst all the others—-remember the inoculation scar everyone had on their upper arms from the multiple vaccination “gun”? I’m 58, and mine has finally faded away. And BTW, not a one of those myriad vaccinations made me autistic. But they did help me survive my childhood—-and beyond—-both mentally and physically healthy.
Load More Replies...You should read "Through the Narrow Gate" by Karen Armstrong. She went into a convent in the 1960's. She was lacto intolerant, but it was not recognised. She was forced to eat milky puddings and drink milk, though it made her very ill. Times change, and we now recognise what food intolerances really are.
Actually the majority of people are lactose intolerant but how our bodies deal with it varies - some people have more extreme reactions and others would never know as the body just copes. I know a lot of people don't agree and think drinking milk is normal (it is an odd thing that only humans persist in doing into adulthood) but do some research. Scientists only fairly recently discovered that evolution has stepped in with a helping hand and people are now being born with the ability to cope with lactose.
Load More Replies...My dad told me once: "Bullying has existed for decades, centuries, but then they didn't have internet to tell us about it every 5 minutes" He studied in a military school, so he has aware of what bullying was and saw it every day. U can say the same for many other things. They existed like now.
It existed, but is in no way natural to human society. 200 years ago, many of the societies we hear about now were just as far from a natural human environment as we are in this day and age. That's true for any city larger than a hunter-gatherer village that ever existed.
Load More Replies...Divorce wasn't necessary when women died from childbirth in their 20's! Staying married Forever wasn't that long!
People also forget that divorce was difficult, or impossible, which led to people living apart or just leaving their spouses. People used to go to Nevada, for example for a quickie divorce before the Advent of the no-fault divorce. That's why Reno used to be called the divorce capitol of America. Believe it or not, there's one state where if one spouse doesn't concede the divorce, you'll have to either prove cruelty or something else to get a divorce, Mississippi. The residents there have gone more often to Washington, as establishing residence there is fairly quick.
Load More Replies...I never knew I was looking for this article until I found it.
One of my college classmates had polio as a child. Her growth was stunted, one leg was quite a bit shorter than the other and her voice sounded like a little child's even though she was in her early 20's. I can't remember if she got polio before the vaccine came out or if her parents just didn't have her get it. Polio is very nasty.
In either way, you need the whole picture. In fact, most things get better, but not all. Any many ailments, as well as societal trends have multiple sources. While some of the contributing factors migth go down, other ramp up. Thus: draw full pictures, no simple conclusions. And in any way, a Tweet-length conclusion for societal problems will hardly ever by enough.
Yes, but it might be enough to start important conversations.
Load More Replies...I brought a small present to my oncologist and was promptly told off. My answer was that he should see this as a small gesture of gratitude from me towards his whole field of science. "I understand perfectly well that if I had become ill with this (weird form of cancer in the wrong place) twenty years ago, we would not be having this conversation." He looked at me, shook his head a little, and softly said: "Not ten years ago either." That was fifteen years ago.
Allergies and autoimmune diseases are rare in places with endemic parasitic infections. It’s possible that most allergies were not at all common before the modern age due to increased sanitation. The same immunoglobulin subtype, IgE, is responsible both for allergic and autoimmune responses as well as responses to parasitic infection.
Load More Replies...I apologize if this comes across as rude, but this article is not coherent. The intro needs to be worked on a bit and the pic of choco and orange doesn't make sense to someone that doesn't have those allergies. Can this be a little more reader friendly? it is very interesting read once you get into it.
The candy is an example of food marketed as gluten free, for those who cannot ingest wheat. (I’m one of the people who legitimately needs to avoid gluten—-some kind of epigenetic change that happened post-menopause, btw, but a lot of others do it just as a fad diet—-which makes marketing candy as gluten free kind of oxymoronic.)
Load More Replies...I read an article in a science magazine quite awhile ago about the body's immune system and allergies. There was an island where allergies were unknown, but they had a lot of problems with parasites. After several decades, the parasites were gone. People developed allergies. The writer's hypothesis was that our bodies' immune systems developed to fight parasites and then when there are no parasites to fight, then the body's immune system doesn't go away - it just finds other things to fight against.
I've heard the same thing, but with a slightly different twist. Parasites like tapeworms secrete anti-histamines to stop the body's immune system from attacking it. Take those anti-histamines away and suddenly our bodies are producing too much histamines and the immune system goes into overdrive.
Load More Replies...False about the rape in Sweeden. they actually did an in depth report of the higher statistic rapes occurring and it was muslim immigrants being reported 90% in the last 5 years I believe.
Yes, glad someone said it. I've also heard from relatives who work in the field that in countries like Sweden and Germany the statistics are being skewed, because rape cases (especially ones involving immigrants) are being recorded as lesser offences, like sexual harassment, in order to hide how big the spike in such offences is.
Load More Replies...The last point is very interesting and important in my opinion. This was just one generation ago in my country. When my MIL got pregnant and then had the kid (my husband), she got a long list from her Doctor what she should avoid eating. "To prevent allergies". Nowadays they encourage you to eat everything but observe the baby for reactions to Momys milk.
Funny, because my DIL is pregnant now (for the second time) and she has a list of things pregnant women aren't allowed to eat that's way, way longer than when I was pregnant in 1985 and 2000.
Load More Replies...I can honestly say feeding your kids peanut butter when their younger prevents allergies when their older. A ton of children in middle eastern countries and Asian countries are fed nut products as children and very few of their population has peanut allergies. So whoever came up with the no peanuts before a certain age thing needs to go back to school cause they screwed over a whole generation of kids in the US. I’m so glad I wasn’t part of that generation. If I ever have kids I’m just going to my mom for advice on what to feed my children so they don’t have weird allergies.
That is such total BS I don't even know where to start. You can develop allergies at any time in life, regardless of your exposure. You can eat something your entire life and then one day your immune system rejects that item, bam food allergy. Google 'experts' are the worst!
Load More Replies...Sweden does not have so much rape because some fancy system they use its because they import so many immigrants from third world countries...be real
Also people aren't always told that by divorcing they'll "bring shame in the family" it's now, in most places, just a sign that the relationship has ended.
Thats why a lot of people from my generation try to say they have Adult ADHD when actually they only found out why they are the way they are all their life. I knew A lot of kids in elementary with different issues
Saying that rape hasn't gone up in Sweden is intentional blindness. Whoever said it isn't a Swede and doesn't want to believe reports about why it is actually happening. And no there weren't peanut allergies like they are today, and no one in class had attacks. Ask an actual doctor that is old enough to remember.
Reported rapes have gone up. In Sweden, as everywhere else, rape is underreported. In some countries, a woman reporting getting raped may even go to jail for it! In most countries, she will face interrogation trying to find out what she did in order to be raped! She is the victim, for crying out loud! That said, no, not only Swedes are perpetrators. Hailing all immigrants as saints would be as far off as calling all of them rapists, or blaming all rapes on them.
Load More Replies...I see people in the comments are just blithely going the other way as blindly as the opinion they are arguing against. Why are there so many autistic people now? Because they used to lock them up, not talk about them, and didn't have a name for it. Likely that is part of the answer, but it is just a wild guess. There is mounting evidence that the very toxic chemicals we feed our fetuses and our children cause development and behavioral disorders. (Who would have thunk that feeding poison to children could be harmful?!) I'm not talking about vaccines. I'm talking about BPA, which is synthetic estrogen and which we all consume every day. Pesticides that are nerve agents. I'm not saying these increase the risk of autism, but the world IS very different from 200 years ago, and it is possible that there IS an actual increase in autism, and it is caused by something modern. Certainly these chemicals are harming our children in some way. Don't blindly apply this idea of survival bias.
OMG! Wheat contains gluten. It always has contained gluten. Gluten is a protein found in wheat. (Also in barley and rye.) Flour is made from wheat. Cakes are made from flour. It isn't magically "added" to cake! And, flour doesn't make the cake rise "quicklier"!
Load More Replies...My great aunt (90 now) had always 'stomach pain' after drinking milk. Back in the day her parents tought that she was being picky and forced her to drink it and once she became an adult she just stopped drinking milk. If she was born in my generation they would have probably just doagnosed her with some lactose intolerance...
A LOT of people have lactose intolerance - one study estimated that up to 40% of Americans have it. It's a matter of degree, though. Some people can tolerate some dairy, others (holds up hand) get queasy with a lot less.
Load More Replies...It is always funny when people say things like 'we didnt had cancer before'. My granpa died of stomach cancer in the early 70s. I just know because my father (now a doctor) told me. Most people back then just said 'He got sick and died'. We did have all this diseases, they were just unknown to the public
Altough I do believe that allergies migh increase because of lack of exposure to dirt during childhood, pollution and chemicals. The same with depression and anxiety; they exisred before but I wouldnt be surprised if they became more normal because of the extreme fast rithm of life nowadays.
Load More Replies...Mildly autistic folks were considered eccentric. Severely autistic folks were locked up. I do genealogy and it's so sad when I find a family member in the census record of an institution.
It is relatively recently that well-functioning autistic people have been recognised as having a condition at all. When I grew up in the 80s you basically had to be non-verbal to get an autism diagnosis.
Load More Replies...My grandma told me about polio, about the "long prams" people were using. For kids that became adults, that were partly parallelized by polio. .. then us kids got vaccinated at school ! ( yeah i'm 50 something years old ). Then we never saw polio again. https://www.who.int/features/qa/07/en/
I am finding the outbreaks of measles scary! Because some kid i knew died of it. Other kids left school and never came back. sorry this is all disorganised thinking.
Load More Replies...I was born in 1955. I remember my mother taking us children to get the polio vaccine that was in a sugar cube. I also had red measles (at my grandma's house and had to be kept in a dark room because the light hurt my eyes) and chicken pox. When I was a teenager, my mother took me to go get the rubella shot. The doctor refused to administer that one until he was convinced I was not pregnant. I made sure my own children (now in their 30's and 40's) had all their shots! Why would anyone want their children to get so sick?
For me, it was chicken pox in first grade, measles in second grade. But only mild cases. I had already had the more dangerous German Measles vaccine, amongst all the others—-remember the inoculation scar everyone had on their upper arms from the multiple vaccination “gun”? I’m 58, and mine has finally faded away. And BTW, not a one of those myriad vaccinations made me autistic. But they did help me survive my childhood—-and beyond—-both mentally and physically healthy.
Load More Replies...You should read "Through the Narrow Gate" by Karen Armstrong. She went into a convent in the 1960's. She was lacto intolerant, but it was not recognised. She was forced to eat milky puddings and drink milk, though it made her very ill. Times change, and we now recognise what food intolerances really are.
Actually the majority of people are lactose intolerant but how our bodies deal with it varies - some people have more extreme reactions and others would never know as the body just copes. I know a lot of people don't agree and think drinking milk is normal (it is an odd thing that only humans persist in doing into adulthood) but do some research. Scientists only fairly recently discovered that evolution has stepped in with a helping hand and people are now being born with the ability to cope with lactose.
Load More Replies...My dad told me once: "Bullying has existed for decades, centuries, but then they didn't have internet to tell us about it every 5 minutes" He studied in a military school, so he has aware of what bullying was and saw it every day. U can say the same for many other things. They existed like now.
It existed, but is in no way natural to human society. 200 years ago, many of the societies we hear about now were just as far from a natural human environment as we are in this day and age. That's true for any city larger than a hunter-gatherer village that ever existed.
Load More Replies...Divorce wasn't necessary when women died from childbirth in their 20's! Staying married Forever wasn't that long!
People also forget that divorce was difficult, or impossible, which led to people living apart or just leaving their spouses. People used to go to Nevada, for example for a quickie divorce before the Advent of the no-fault divorce. That's why Reno used to be called the divorce capitol of America. Believe it or not, there's one state where if one spouse doesn't concede the divorce, you'll have to either prove cruelty or something else to get a divorce, Mississippi. The residents there have gone more often to Washington, as establishing residence there is fairly quick.
Load More Replies...I never knew I was looking for this article until I found it.
One of my college classmates had polio as a child. Her growth was stunted, one leg was quite a bit shorter than the other and her voice sounded like a little child's even though she was in her early 20's. I can't remember if she got polio before the vaccine came out or if her parents just didn't have her get it. Polio is very nasty.
In either way, you need the whole picture. In fact, most things get better, but not all. Any many ailments, as well as societal trends have multiple sources. While some of the contributing factors migth go down, other ramp up. Thus: draw full pictures, no simple conclusions. And in any way, a Tweet-length conclusion for societal problems will hardly ever by enough.
Yes, but it might be enough to start important conversations.
Load More Replies...I brought a small present to my oncologist and was promptly told off. My answer was that he should see this as a small gesture of gratitude from me towards his whole field of science. "I understand perfectly well that if I had become ill with this (weird form of cancer in the wrong place) twenty years ago, we would not be having this conversation." He looked at me, shook his head a little, and softly said: "Not ten years ago either." That was fifteen years ago.
Allergies and autoimmune diseases are rare in places with endemic parasitic infections. It’s possible that most allergies were not at all common before the modern age due to increased sanitation. The same immunoglobulin subtype, IgE, is responsible both for allergic and autoimmune responses as well as responses to parasitic infection.
Load More Replies...I apologize if this comes across as rude, but this article is not coherent. The intro needs to be worked on a bit and the pic of choco and orange doesn't make sense to someone that doesn't have those allergies. Can this be a little more reader friendly? it is very interesting read once you get into it.
The candy is an example of food marketed as gluten free, for those who cannot ingest wheat. (I’m one of the people who legitimately needs to avoid gluten—-some kind of epigenetic change that happened post-menopause, btw, but a lot of others do it just as a fad diet—-which makes marketing candy as gluten free kind of oxymoronic.)
Load More Replies...I read an article in a science magazine quite awhile ago about the body's immune system and allergies. There was an island where allergies were unknown, but they had a lot of problems with parasites. After several decades, the parasites were gone. People developed allergies. The writer's hypothesis was that our bodies' immune systems developed to fight parasites and then when there are no parasites to fight, then the body's immune system doesn't go away - it just finds other things to fight against.
I've heard the same thing, but with a slightly different twist. Parasites like tapeworms secrete anti-histamines to stop the body's immune system from attacking it. Take those anti-histamines away and suddenly our bodies are producing too much histamines and the immune system goes into overdrive.
Load More Replies...False about the rape in Sweeden. they actually did an in depth report of the higher statistic rapes occurring and it was muslim immigrants being reported 90% in the last 5 years I believe.
Yes, glad someone said it. I've also heard from relatives who work in the field that in countries like Sweden and Germany the statistics are being skewed, because rape cases (especially ones involving immigrants) are being recorded as lesser offences, like sexual harassment, in order to hide how big the spike in such offences is.
Load More Replies...The last point is very interesting and important in my opinion. This was just one generation ago in my country. When my MIL got pregnant and then had the kid (my husband), she got a long list from her Doctor what she should avoid eating. "To prevent allergies". Nowadays they encourage you to eat everything but observe the baby for reactions to Momys milk.
Funny, because my DIL is pregnant now (for the second time) and she has a list of things pregnant women aren't allowed to eat that's way, way longer than when I was pregnant in 1985 and 2000.
Load More Replies...I can honestly say feeding your kids peanut butter when their younger prevents allergies when their older. A ton of children in middle eastern countries and Asian countries are fed nut products as children and very few of their population has peanut allergies. So whoever came up with the no peanuts before a certain age thing needs to go back to school cause they screwed over a whole generation of kids in the US. I’m so glad I wasn’t part of that generation. If I ever have kids I’m just going to my mom for advice on what to feed my children so they don’t have weird allergies.
That is such total BS I don't even know where to start. You can develop allergies at any time in life, regardless of your exposure. You can eat something your entire life and then one day your immune system rejects that item, bam food allergy. Google 'experts' are the worst!
Load More Replies...Sweden does not have so much rape because some fancy system they use its because they import so many immigrants from third world countries...be real
Also people aren't always told that by divorcing they'll "bring shame in the family" it's now, in most places, just a sign that the relationship has ended.
Thats why a lot of people from my generation try to say they have Adult ADHD when actually they only found out why they are the way they are all their life. I knew A lot of kids in elementary with different issues
Saying that rape hasn't gone up in Sweden is intentional blindness. Whoever said it isn't a Swede and doesn't want to believe reports about why it is actually happening. And no there weren't peanut allergies like they are today, and no one in class had attacks. Ask an actual doctor that is old enough to remember.
Reported rapes have gone up. In Sweden, as everywhere else, rape is underreported. In some countries, a woman reporting getting raped may even go to jail for it! In most countries, she will face interrogation trying to find out what she did in order to be raped! She is the victim, for crying out loud! That said, no, not only Swedes are perpetrators. Hailing all immigrants as saints would be as far off as calling all of them rapists, or blaming all rapes on them.
Load More Replies...I see people in the comments are just blithely going the other way as blindly as the opinion they are arguing against. Why are there so many autistic people now? Because they used to lock them up, not talk about them, and didn't have a name for it. Likely that is part of the answer, but it is just a wild guess. There is mounting evidence that the very toxic chemicals we feed our fetuses and our children cause development and behavioral disorders. (Who would have thunk that feeding poison to children could be harmful?!) I'm not talking about vaccines. I'm talking about BPA, which is synthetic estrogen and which we all consume every day. Pesticides that are nerve agents. I'm not saying these increase the risk of autism, but the world IS very different from 200 years ago, and it is possible that there IS an actual increase in autism, and it is caused by something modern. Certainly these chemicals are harming our children in some way. Don't blindly apply this idea of survival bias.
OMG! Wheat contains gluten. It always has contained gluten. Gluten is a protein found in wheat. (Also in barley and rye.) Flour is made from wheat. Cakes are made from flour. It isn't magically "added" to cake! And, flour doesn't make the cake rise "quicklier"!
Load More Replies...
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