Political Scientist Says The Pandemic Won’t End Soon In The US Because Of 3 New Developments
In most countries, the state of quarantine has been going on for around two months now, and though some of them are either considering, or are already easing up on the lockdown conditions, this is by no means a sign of the pandemic being over. Nor a sign of victory over COVID-19. The virus is still potent and still at large.
This is prompting many to forecast everything from how long the lockdown will continue to how fast a vaccine will be developed to what the possible death toll of this pandemic will be.
Yascha Mounk, Associate Professor of the Practice of Political Science at Johns Hopkins SAIS, went to Twitter to share his thoughts and forecasts on the current COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the US. All in all, his conclusion is that the prognosis is “bleak.”
More info: Twitter
Political Scientist Yascha Mounk went to Twitter to give his prognosis of things to come with the pandemic
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
His research lead him to conclude that it’s a “bleak picture”, and points out 3 developments on the matter
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
First, he tackles the issue of death rate, saying that developing herd immunity may require up to 2M deaths
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
He also compiled a spreadsheet showing some figures
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
His second point is that there are no effective treatments in the foreseeable future
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Third, and last, Mounk says that US isn’t anywhere near test-and-trace
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Apparently, there is not enough focus on solving the issue, thus adding to the COVID-19 problem
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
He wraps up with the following
Image credits: Yascha_Mounk
Mounk covers three new developments in his tweet thread: death rates, effective treatment, and test-trace system. The TL;DR version of it is that:
[1] antibody tests are coming in and it turns out COVID-19 is more prevalent than previously stated, potentially leading to larger death tolls; [2] there’s no effective treatment in sight as current drug tests fail to show any signs of helping the problem, with vaccines being the only possible way of effective treatment, but they’re not here yet; and [3] the US isn’t anywhere near test-and-trace, explaining that the focus on solving the problem is elsewhere than it should be, and it’s all left to the states rather than on a more universal scope.
Now, all of Mounk’s references can be found in his Twitter thread if you want to get acquainted with his sources, but even with that said, some people urge readers to take this information with a grain of salt.
They point out that though Mounk is a scientist, it’s of a political and not of a medical nature, so considering this as a documented and justified opinion piece is a fair approach. Others also note that this is a forecast, and like many forecasts, it’s likely to change; hence skepticism is advised to some degree.
Here’s what others had to say about Mounk’s bleak prognosis
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The last tweet is the most reasonable. Those who think we should literally just stay locked down until it's all gone or we have a perfect vaccine do not understand the consequences. You know who says "let's reopen"? People who are on the brink of losing their houses and businesses and retirement funds and those who already can't pay rent and are running out of credit. Know who says "Let's just stay in quarantine until it's all over"? Those who can afford to.
Also, please get the term "scientist" out of the title because it's a goddamn poly-sci degree and that is NOT science. Since you are talking about a medical issue, it creates a disingenuous implication.
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Scientific way to say we're all doomed... But I appreciate the scientific approach
Just wish the polititians (I am U.K. national living in Turkey) would just stop looking to their own selfish poltical prospects and start to care about the population. I am looking at you, Boris.
I can understand the American drive to get the country open as soon as possible, without a working social net in place to buy time it´s backs to the wall for most Americans. Because that´s all there is available to combat Corvid19, buy time, save as many as possible and ensure that there is something there to continue with when it´s over. All in all I would hate to be in America at this time, so good luck, it will pass, it will pass like a kidney stone but it will pass.
You have a belief system and opinion like thousands of other professionals. There are pros and cons to each opinion. And you and the others honestly don't know a lot about the virus. I'm all for herd immunity.
Well till I see numbers, charts at least Pdh level study on this I ain't gonna get scarred of some tweets... He said to himself that we don't know enough about viruses yet... it might be bad, it might be not as bad.... I won't allow being scarred of worst-case scenario... Meanwhile, I still take maximum precautions possible, but I ain't crying at home in the corner. Pandas have a great morning, may God (or not God, or nothing) will bless you with health, prosperity, and sunshine. I love you all!!!
Honestly, though, I kind of think Bored Panda isn't the right place for a post like this. I come on here hoping to find uplifting, beautiful, and funny things, especially now when the mainstream news is overtly negative. This is supposed to be a positive website. If I want to see depressing and hopeless posts I go to one of the dozens of other news sites. Yes, I appreciate the 'scientific and logical' approach, but this should really be on like, CNN or MSNBC or something, not here. I don't think that this is the point of this website. Right now this is the last thing some people (especially those struggling with mental illness already) need to see. I'm already feeling more depressed after reading this post, when the point of the website is to do the exact opposite.
I agree BP was supposed to be more lightweight and inoffensive generally but it has often had things that I have avoided to avoid distress and right now all bets are off, we have new norms and we are all up in the air. So I think it is down to us and maybe we need to be more self selective so that we only look at what we can cope with. I did think it was obvious that this article was going to be rather doom and gloom so for some best avoided
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Are you volunteering first in line to be “sacrificed“? Your government could do much more to soften the economic blow for workers and companies than just that little stimulus. But it won't because Trump doesn't care about anyone but himself.
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The last tweet is the most reasonable. Those who think we should literally just stay locked down until it's all gone or we have a perfect vaccine do not understand the consequences. You know who says "let's reopen"? People who are on the brink of losing their houses and businesses and retirement funds and those who already can't pay rent and are running out of credit. Know who says "Let's just stay in quarantine until it's all over"? Those who can afford to.
Also, please get the term "scientist" out of the title because it's a goddamn poly-sci degree and that is NOT science. Since you are talking about a medical issue, it creates a disingenuous implication.
Load More Replies... Scientific way to say we're all doomed... But I appreciate the scientific approach
Just wish the polititians (I am U.K. national living in Turkey) would just stop looking to their own selfish poltical prospects and start to care about the population. I am looking at you, Boris.
I can understand the American drive to get the country open as soon as possible, without a working social net in place to buy time it´s backs to the wall for most Americans. Because that´s all there is available to combat Corvid19, buy time, save as many as possible and ensure that there is something there to continue with when it´s over. All in all I would hate to be in America at this time, so good luck, it will pass, it will pass like a kidney stone but it will pass.
You have a belief system and opinion like thousands of other professionals. There are pros and cons to each opinion. And you and the others honestly don't know a lot about the virus. I'm all for herd immunity.
Well till I see numbers, charts at least Pdh level study on this I ain't gonna get scarred of some tweets... He said to himself that we don't know enough about viruses yet... it might be bad, it might be not as bad.... I won't allow being scarred of worst-case scenario... Meanwhile, I still take maximum precautions possible, but I ain't crying at home in the corner. Pandas have a great morning, may God (or not God, or nothing) will bless you with health, prosperity, and sunshine. I love you all!!!
Honestly, though, I kind of think Bored Panda isn't the right place for a post like this. I come on here hoping to find uplifting, beautiful, and funny things, especially now when the mainstream news is overtly negative. This is supposed to be a positive website. If I want to see depressing and hopeless posts I go to one of the dozens of other news sites. Yes, I appreciate the 'scientific and logical' approach, but this should really be on like, CNN or MSNBC or something, not here. I don't think that this is the point of this website. Right now this is the last thing some people (especially those struggling with mental illness already) need to see. I'm already feeling more depressed after reading this post, when the point of the website is to do the exact opposite.
I agree BP was supposed to be more lightweight and inoffensive generally but it has often had things that I have avoided to avoid distress and right now all bets are off, we have new norms and we are all up in the air. So I think it is down to us and maybe we need to be more self selective so that we only look at what we can cope with. I did think it was obvious that this article was going to be rather doom and gloom so for some best avoided
Load More Replies... Are you volunteering first in line to be “sacrificed“? Your government could do much more to soften the economic blow for workers and companies than just that little stimulus. But it won't because Trump doesn't care about anyone but himself.
Load More Replies...
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