“But It’s Only 1% Fatal!” Person Shuts Down Covidiots By Giving Some Gruesome Numbers Of Possible Victims
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“How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?” Writer and business owner Franklin Veaux tackled this question on Quora by going into detail about the real dangers of Covid-19 that go beyond the number of people who lost their lives.
Keep in mind, dear Pandas, that it’s very difficult to calculate the actual mortality rate of the coronavirus, especially since we don’t know the real number of people infected. You can get wildly different numbers depending on the source, so it’s easy to get confused. There are also different ways to calculate these rates and they mean different things. Talking about the case fatality rate is different from the crude fatality rate and the infection fatality rate.
However, even if the fatality percentage is low, as Veaux points out, the actual number of people that the virus kills, damages, and affects is still huge.
Franklin Veaux analyzed why Covid-19 is so dangerous and what its theoretical impact could be
Veaux used various studies to extrapolate the numbers of people who would be hospitalized and would have permanent damage by assuming a hypothetical infection rate of 100 percent and a mortality rate of 1 percent.
In other words, his infection numbers are a worst-case scenario (though he calls them conservative) but they illustrate why it’s important to take care of your health and wear a mask in public spaces.
One thing to keep in mind is that Veaux mentions that for every person who dies, 19 more require hospitalization and 18 of those have permanent heart damage. This can’t be the case for obvious reasons. However, the writer later cites a study that found that 19 percent of hospitalized patients showed signs of heart damage. Veaux probably did not mean to mislead anyone and simply made a (very) human error.
The writer’s numbers could also be slightly off because of the natural limitations of the studies that he references. The coronavirus pandemic is still relatively new and more research needs to be done before anyone can state for certain that for every X people who die from Covid-19, Y will be hospitalized, and of those, Z will have conditions A, B, and C. Rushed small-scale studies can give us the ballpark but not the specifics.
Some of the sources include:
What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19
Here are two of the studies that Veaux references in this bit: you can find them here and here.
What We Know About the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19
The writer provided three more links for this part of his answer: you can find the sources here, here, and here.
Lifelong Lung Damage: A Serious COVID-19 Complication
He added three more links in this chunk of his answer. You can find his sources here, here, as well as here.
What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19
Heart damage
Veaux added two more studies about heart damage which you can find here and here.
The number of people who died, were hospitalized, and were affected would also have to be adjusted by time, as well as by geographical location. Do we focus on just the newest Covid-19 numbers by referring to a rolling 7-day-average? Or do we take into account the aggregate number over the entire pandemic since it began? What regions, countries, and states are we looking at, and at what point during the quarantines? There are a lot of specifics that we ought to keep in mind if we want to know the full accurate picture.
So while Veaux’s analysis of the situation required a lot of effort on his part and his sketches of the general picture as to why the coronavirus was able to shut down the US, take the actual numbers he presents with a grain of salt—he’s not a scientist (nor does he claim to be one).
Image credits: Franklin Veaux
According to the World Health Organization, there are currently over 12.88 million confirmed Covid-19 infections in 216 countries, areas, and territories all over the globe. More than 568.5k have lost their lives because of or while infected with the virus. Over 3.28 million cases of infections were confirmed in the US, and over 134.7k lost their lives. Meanwhile, Johns Hopkins University claims that there are over 13.1 million confirmed cases globally, more than 573k people lost their lives; of these, over 3.36 million cases and 135.6k deaths are in the US.
It’s natural to have a lot of questions during the pandemic, especially when different sources have slightly different statistics: if you want to check out the various myths surrounding the coronavirus outbreak, have a look at the WHO’s page right here.
Here’s how people reacted to Veaux’s informative answer on Quora
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One detail that the research is omitting, is that almost any covid19 survivor had to undergo to icu, they were put sedated for weeks, which compromises muscolar funcionalities on so many levels at the extent also young patients need weeks of rehab. Elderly often won't move asay a wheelchair for the rest of their lives.
Which in the US means a ridiculously enormous hospital bill at the end of it, so some people will probably opt to die rather than bankrupt themselves and their families—-a variation on the familiar theme of people here not going to the doctor for other ailments/minor injuries when they should, because of the crippling cost, even with good health insurance.
That's heartbreaking. I really do feel for US citizens having that complication on top of what is, for everyone, a dreadful situation.
Had a friend get tested in Los Angeles last week because her coworker tested positive. Her bill was $1,300.
Excellent point.
"Almost any" is not a number or a fact. Dont spread BS. Many "survivors" as you call them had mild symptoms. A child in my son's daycare first got it from is mother that works in hospitals in Las Vegas. That family, my son and wife, babysitter and here two sons all have been tested for antibodies and all came back with positive results. Not sure first family but babysitter family just worked through what they thought was a terrible flu. My family all went to urgent care twice in a month and was treated for bronchitis. My wife was bad enough she got a drug for the plague even. But no never ICU. So again almost any isn't a number and do not blanket items.
Wow! That's amazing....so ALL 3.8M confirmed US cases (per Google tonight) were in ICU? Given that there are only a total of about 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S, I'd say that's an amazing feat! Or possibly you are a complete dumb ass and full of shit. People are testing positive who have very mild symptoms or none at all. Not "everyone who gets Covid has to go to ICU". Sit your lying ass down.
I don't have this same attitude as Victoria, but I have the same question. This struck me as very odd.
I think Max L. May have worded it incorrectly and meant that every Covid-19 survivor THAT had to go to ICU were sedated for weeks. Whilst it does make better sense that is also not 100% true. Whilst many people did end up in ICU not all of them were sedated.
Maybe try counter-asking "How did an event that killed less than 0.001% stop the country, start a messy war and keeps being remembered?" about 9/11 and see if anyone doesn't call you (rightly, of course!) horrible names.
Not a very useful comparison - 9/11 only stopped air travel for a few days, and most businesses in the US were not directly affected.
On the contrary. People still talk about the 9/11 attack to this day, there’s been a holiday of observance made in its honor, facial recognition and terroristic surveillance has increased, Air Travel and civil liberties have forever been altered, and all sorts of still take precautionary measures for something that will very likely never have happen again. Looking strictly at the immediate death toll, roughly “only” 3,000 have in the 9/11 attacks. In comparison we’re currently sitting at 141,000 deaths and climbing due to COVID-19 and that’s with poor reporting. Yet despite those astronomical numbers, people are storming Capitol buildings in armed fashion and protesting against staying home because they are buying into the propaganda that virus doesn’t exist and their freedom to not wear a piece of cloth, work, or party is being trampled. Again, this doesn’t even take into account all of the sick and chronically ill that may not die but WILL BE impacted for years if not lifetimes
Yazz Panamix -
Yazz Panamix easy
People still their shoes off to get on airplanes. The war in Iraq killed 100s of thousands of civilians and the asshole who ran that country had NOTHING to do with it.
In the US, the current death rate as of today is 4%. 3,370,000 cases, 137,000 deaths. That we know of.
Keep in mind that 4% is a minimum. You can't fully count a death rate until each case is 'closed' as either recovered or dead. If you remove the active cases then the number will be higher
Are you sure Ian Smith? It's based on cause of death as stated on the death certificate. If someone dies due to injuries caused by a collision that isn't going to say Covid 19. Can you provide source information to back this up?
Ian Smith: No, faking death certificates is a rare occurrence, except in the movies or on TV. Or in your imagination. In fact, quite the opposite is happening. Right now there’s a dire lack of adequate testing, meaning there have been, still are, and will continue to be deaths not counted as resulting from COVID-19 that should be, so the numbers won’t ever be completely accurate.
This comment is hidden. Click here to view.
Keep in mind that any death is being reported as a COVID death. If someone with a mild case is run over by a truck, the CDC is counting that as a COVID death.
Exactly! That's the thing I'm always thinking about... "That we know of". I'm Canadian so Covid hasn't hit as hard, but it's still troubling for the US. I'm sending positivity from the Great White North! 😁
It shows as a smiling face on the website but I think the app has a glitch which means that it often shows emojis as question marks.
Idon't know why there's a question mark there... Just ignor it.
Chocoholic lol
Thank you. My city has more cases now than ALL of Canada. Nearly everyone wore a mask and stayed home the 1st shutdown of 6 weeks, we're about to shut down again.
Please also send your health care system, legal weed and lots of maple syrup.
Any morbidity rate calculated *during* the pandemic will be highly inaccurate. The number of cases is just the ones that we know about. The number of deaths may include "suspected" cases in some places, and not in others. But most importantly, the death rate doesn't include people who are already sick but not died yet.
True, but South Korea has done an excellent job with testing and their number is around 2%. So I think that is likely the baseline for high levels of testing and sufficient medical care. That means if you're finding and accurately counting most cases, and saving those who can be saved, 2% is a reasonable guess.
Chanelle Knapp Good response!
Chanelle Knapp ?
True, but you have to go by something.
That’s about 1% of the US as confirmed cases, I believe it’s 330 million people in the US.
One detail that the research is omitting, is that almost any covid19 survivor had to undergo to icu, they were put sedated for weeks, which compromises muscolar funcionalities on so many levels at the extent also young patients need weeks of rehab. Elderly often won't move asay a wheelchair for the rest of their lives.
Which in the US means a ridiculously enormous hospital bill at the end of it, so some people will probably opt to die rather than bankrupt themselves and their families—-a variation on the familiar theme of people here not going to the doctor for other ailments/minor injuries when they should, because of the crippling cost, even with good health insurance.
That's heartbreaking. I really do feel for US citizens having that complication on top of what is, for everyone, a dreadful situation.
Had a friend get tested in Los Angeles last week because her coworker tested positive. Her bill was $1,300.
Excellent point.
"Almost any" is not a number or a fact. Dont spread BS. Many "survivors" as you call them had mild symptoms. A child in my son's daycare first got it from is mother that works in hospitals in Las Vegas. That family, my son and wife, babysitter and here two sons all have been tested for antibodies and all came back with positive results. Not sure first family but babysitter family just worked through what they thought was a terrible flu. My family all went to urgent care twice in a month and was treated for bronchitis. My wife was bad enough she got a drug for the plague even. But no never ICU. So again almost any isn't a number and do not blanket items.
Wow! That's amazing....so ALL 3.8M confirmed US cases (per Google tonight) were in ICU? Given that there are only a total of about 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S, I'd say that's an amazing feat! Or possibly you are a complete dumb ass and full of shit. People are testing positive who have very mild symptoms or none at all. Not "everyone who gets Covid has to go to ICU". Sit your lying ass down.
I don't have this same attitude as Victoria, but I have the same question. This struck me as very odd.
I think Max L. May have worded it incorrectly and meant that every Covid-19 survivor THAT had to go to ICU were sedated for weeks. Whilst it does make better sense that is also not 100% true. Whilst many people did end up in ICU not all of them were sedated.
Maybe try counter-asking "How did an event that killed less than 0.001% stop the country, start a messy war and keeps being remembered?" about 9/11 and see if anyone doesn't call you (rightly, of course!) horrible names.
Not a very useful comparison - 9/11 only stopped air travel for a few days, and most businesses in the US were not directly affected.
On the contrary. People still talk about the 9/11 attack to this day, there’s been a holiday of observance made in its honor, facial recognition and terroristic surveillance has increased, Air Travel and civil liberties have forever been altered, and all sorts of still take precautionary measures for something that will very likely never have happen again. Looking strictly at the immediate death toll, roughly “only” 3,000 have in the 9/11 attacks. In comparison we’re currently sitting at 141,000 deaths and climbing due to COVID-19 and that’s with poor reporting. Yet despite those astronomical numbers, people are storming Capitol buildings in armed fashion and protesting against staying home because they are buying into the propaganda that virus doesn’t exist and their freedom to not wear a piece of cloth, work, or party is being trampled. Again, this doesn’t even take into account all of the sick and chronically ill that may not die but WILL BE impacted for years if not lifetimes
Yazz Panamix -
Yazz Panamix easy
People still their shoes off to get on airplanes. The war in Iraq killed 100s of thousands of civilians and the asshole who ran that country had NOTHING to do with it.
In the US, the current death rate as of today is 4%. 3,370,000 cases, 137,000 deaths. That we know of.
Keep in mind that 4% is a minimum. You can't fully count a death rate until each case is 'closed' as either recovered or dead. If you remove the active cases then the number will be higher
Are you sure Ian Smith? It's based on cause of death as stated on the death certificate. If someone dies due to injuries caused by a collision that isn't going to say Covid 19. Can you provide source information to back this up?
Ian Smith: No, faking death certificates is a rare occurrence, except in the movies or on TV. Or in your imagination. In fact, quite the opposite is happening. Right now there’s a dire lack of adequate testing, meaning there have been, still are, and will continue to be deaths not counted as resulting from COVID-19 that should be, so the numbers won’t ever be completely accurate.
This comment is hidden. Click here to view.
Keep in mind that any death is being reported as a COVID death. If someone with a mild case is run over by a truck, the CDC is counting that as a COVID death.
Exactly! That's the thing I'm always thinking about... "That we know of". I'm Canadian so Covid hasn't hit as hard, but it's still troubling for the US. I'm sending positivity from the Great White North! 😁
It shows as a smiling face on the website but I think the app has a glitch which means that it often shows emojis as question marks.
Idon't know why there's a question mark there... Just ignor it.
Chocoholic lol
Thank you. My city has more cases now than ALL of Canada. Nearly everyone wore a mask and stayed home the 1st shutdown of 6 weeks, we're about to shut down again.
Please also send your health care system, legal weed and lots of maple syrup.
Any morbidity rate calculated *during* the pandemic will be highly inaccurate. The number of cases is just the ones that we know about. The number of deaths may include "suspected" cases in some places, and not in others. But most importantly, the death rate doesn't include people who are already sick but not died yet.
True, but South Korea has done an excellent job with testing and their number is around 2%. So I think that is likely the baseline for high levels of testing and sufficient medical care. That means if you're finding and accurately counting most cases, and saving those who can be saved, 2% is a reasonable guess.
Chanelle Knapp Good response!
Chanelle Knapp ?
True, but you have to go by something.
That’s about 1% of the US as confirmed cases, I believe it’s 330 million people in the US.