Scientist Explains What Would Happen If “The US Does Absolutely Nothing And Lets Virus Take Its Course”
If we do nothing, the effects that the novel coronavirus can have on society can be devastating. That’s what the Imperial College London team concluded after running the simulation of likely outcomes in the US and the UK based on different possible strategies we can take. Fortunately, if the right steps are taken, the impact of the disease can be greatly reduced.
Dixie State University history professor Jeremy C. Young took to Twitter and summarized the Imperial College’s findings in an easy to understand way. TL;DR suppressing the virus until a vaccine can be made will save countless lives and is the best strategy.
You can read the full Imperial College report here.
Professor Jeremy C. Young summarized the Imperial College’s report about how different strategies in the fight against the coronavirus will have different results
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Image credits: jeremycyoung
Young’s Twitter informative thread was immensely popular, getting over 171.8k likes and 90k retweets on Twitter. It also spread to other social media sites, including Imgur, where it got more than 6k upvotes. Young pointed out that if the US were to do nothing, 80 percent of the population would likely get infected and around 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus. However, the death toll would most likely be higher because there would be a shortage of ventilators.
According to the Imperial College team, it will require “multiple interventions” to have a “substantial impact on transmission.”
There are two possible strategies when it comes to fighting Covid-19: mitigation (slowing the epidemic) and suppression (reversing the growth of the epidemic until the creation of a vaccine). Unfortunately, mitigation would still lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths. This leaves us with suppression which is the best option and would save countless lives.
Suppression involves self-isolation, quarantining the infected, closing schools and universities, and taking social distancing to heart. That way, health systems and medical professionals will be able to cope with the strain. The biggest challenge with this strategy is that we would have to keep this up for around 18 or more months until scientists develop a working and safe vaccine.
In other words, if at any time we start relaxing too much and thinking that the strategy is working, we might see another surge in coronavirus cases. So battening down the hatches and waiting for a vaccine is our best bet. What do you think, dear Pandas? Share your thoughts with us in the comments.
This is what people thought about Young’s summary of the Imperial College’s Covid-19 report
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146Kviews
Share on FacebookThank you. The facts are getting lost. Instead of focusing on our health, people are judging the actions of others. Those who panic, buy too much toilet paper, or haven't read/heard the same facts. We should assume we don't understand the situation; compassion before harsh judgement. Share information not your opinion; copy this information and insert in an email. Be part of the solution, stay home. Consider acting with kindness; try to be nice.
Today, one of my close friend posted on Facebook that he is positive for Codiv19 and ask anyone who came in contact with him during the past days to check their temperature. He lives in a small city. It's getting real people. Time to stay home and stop act like you can go thru without damage your life or others.
No country in the world has even 1% of icu bed , in relation of number of citizens. And, according to italian and european numbers, in average 8/10% of infected needs ICU hospitalization and respiratory assistance for 2 weeks or more . The calculation is easy, you don't need a Phd to understand how much critical the situation could be, in a very short time. Don't be stupid don't be reckless, protect yourself to protect everyone else
I think, at age 60, I had a triple fusion on my lumbar spine in December 2019. I am only 2 months in to my physical therapy, and doing better than I thought. But this virus has me worried about going to PT. I am also in a higher risk group due to an arrhythmia condition and type 2 diabetes, under very very good control. But still there. I cancelled the rest of my PT. Not knowing for sure how much longer I had. So, I will socially isolate, and do what I can at home. Scary. At least I have the nerve deficit issue under better control. But in this situation, what can you do?
Mitigation is the strategy used in The Netherlands, but we are really picking up momentum and most measures will not be enough to not overwhelm our health care system. This thread just shows a very straight forward calculation. One thing that might help overcome periods of lockdown is if we know we are immune after infection and tests become readily available. This would make it possible for people who went through an infection to just continue their daily activities. People will get involuntary inocculated by actually going through an infection... There is no scenario besides a miracle that will take it easy on us...
I'm not against messages that imply the severity of COVID 19, but I'm not a fan of discounting the severity of the holocaust with faulty statistics. 6 million Jews were killed, plus 10 million for other reasons (homosexuality and such). Just to be clear, a virus triggering SIX times the death toll of the is still really ducking bad!
It's not faulty figures. When people refer to The Holocaust they are referring *specifically* to the eradication of the Jews. NOT the total number of murders and deaths in the camps and ghettos.
Load More Replies...He had me until he didn't know how many people died in Holocaust. Then lost all credibility. For those who are downvoting, an estimated 10-17 million people died in Holocaust. Not 6 million. https://www.thoughtco.com/holocaust-facts-1779663
6 million Jews died in the holocaust. Another 5-6 million others died in the camps. The Holocaust refers specifically to the genocide of the Jews of Europe.
Load More Replies...4 million Americans is more than have died of anything else, ever? Just a guess.. but do you think the remaining natives still can't read English?
I think this - Lombardia, Italy. The army-cars with the dying people :( matteo-5e7...cd0434.jpg
Despite wether these facts are accurate or not, we know that a decent number of people will need ventilators. To live! Even younger people. That should be enough to get people to take things seriously.
We have the knowledge to stay home or use social distancing, and thousands of people refuse to comply because they know better.
Everyone complaining about countries not doing enough, how about you try to be a President, Prime Minister or a politician for a day and see how easy it is. They're doing their best they can - they may be a few steps behind but they're not sitting on their arses doing nothing.
Meanwhile, most offices are still open. Lots of folks are continuing to work from home, oblivious to the fact that their continuing to work often means other people have to go out. Many businesses are keeping people at the office until they can beef up their VPN before letting folks work from home, while also saying that people are their priority. As If. Our inability to think outside the box of capitalism and our refusal to just sit TF down and chill does not afford me much hope that suppression is going to work well
Lot of hot takes here to get clicks and likes. Summarizing actual science to get to the scariest conclusion to create fear and pandemonium. I’ll get downvoted, but I’m right.
But you do understand there is no easy way out right? If facts scare people, than the reality is what's wrong, not the messenger. This is not just extracting some statements from science, this is, exactly what you're calling it, summarizing. And the conclusion is we're royally forked.
Load More Replies...But what if we did all the precautions and your numbers were off (high) by 60-70%? What if we did nothing and human bodies develop a resistance over several months, and COVid becomes inert? I know we can't take the chance of your highest estimate, so the current plan is in place, but what if you are wrong? Was ruining the economy and scaring three hundred million people worth it? What if the numbers are still so low because the disease isn't as bad as you are telling us?
What does it matter, it could have started anywhere and noone knew how to react, look at US president pretending nothing happened for so long. If it started in the US it would have been much worse.
Load More Replies...No it isn't - I'm from London/England and most of us are self/family isolating, a lot of tube lines have been shut down, universities have kicked out their students and schools will be closing on Friday. We may a few steps behind but we're not doing nothing.
Load More Replies...I belive you have no idea of what´s going on, and still you are worried about you economy. Bad for you.
Load More Replies...Thank you. The facts are getting lost. Instead of focusing on our health, people are judging the actions of others. Those who panic, buy too much toilet paper, or haven't read/heard the same facts. We should assume we don't understand the situation; compassion before harsh judgement. Share information not your opinion; copy this information and insert in an email. Be part of the solution, stay home. Consider acting with kindness; try to be nice.
Today, one of my close friend posted on Facebook that he is positive for Codiv19 and ask anyone who came in contact with him during the past days to check their temperature. He lives in a small city. It's getting real people. Time to stay home and stop act like you can go thru without damage your life or others.
No country in the world has even 1% of icu bed , in relation of number of citizens. And, according to italian and european numbers, in average 8/10% of infected needs ICU hospitalization and respiratory assistance for 2 weeks or more . The calculation is easy, you don't need a Phd to understand how much critical the situation could be, in a very short time. Don't be stupid don't be reckless, protect yourself to protect everyone else
I think, at age 60, I had a triple fusion on my lumbar spine in December 2019. I am only 2 months in to my physical therapy, and doing better than I thought. But this virus has me worried about going to PT. I am also in a higher risk group due to an arrhythmia condition and type 2 diabetes, under very very good control. But still there. I cancelled the rest of my PT. Not knowing for sure how much longer I had. So, I will socially isolate, and do what I can at home. Scary. At least I have the nerve deficit issue under better control. But in this situation, what can you do?
Mitigation is the strategy used in The Netherlands, but we are really picking up momentum and most measures will not be enough to not overwhelm our health care system. This thread just shows a very straight forward calculation. One thing that might help overcome periods of lockdown is if we know we are immune after infection and tests become readily available. This would make it possible for people who went through an infection to just continue their daily activities. People will get involuntary inocculated by actually going through an infection... There is no scenario besides a miracle that will take it easy on us...
I'm not against messages that imply the severity of COVID 19, but I'm not a fan of discounting the severity of the holocaust with faulty statistics. 6 million Jews were killed, plus 10 million for other reasons (homosexuality and such). Just to be clear, a virus triggering SIX times the death toll of the is still really ducking bad!
It's not faulty figures. When people refer to The Holocaust they are referring *specifically* to the eradication of the Jews. NOT the total number of murders and deaths in the camps and ghettos.
Load More Replies...He had me until he didn't know how many people died in Holocaust. Then lost all credibility. For those who are downvoting, an estimated 10-17 million people died in Holocaust. Not 6 million. https://www.thoughtco.com/holocaust-facts-1779663
6 million Jews died in the holocaust. Another 5-6 million others died in the camps. The Holocaust refers specifically to the genocide of the Jews of Europe.
Load More Replies...4 million Americans is more than have died of anything else, ever? Just a guess.. but do you think the remaining natives still can't read English?
I think this - Lombardia, Italy. The army-cars with the dying people :( matteo-5e7...cd0434.jpg
Despite wether these facts are accurate or not, we know that a decent number of people will need ventilators. To live! Even younger people. That should be enough to get people to take things seriously.
We have the knowledge to stay home or use social distancing, and thousands of people refuse to comply because they know better.
Everyone complaining about countries not doing enough, how about you try to be a President, Prime Minister or a politician for a day and see how easy it is. They're doing their best they can - they may be a few steps behind but they're not sitting on their arses doing nothing.
Meanwhile, most offices are still open. Lots of folks are continuing to work from home, oblivious to the fact that their continuing to work often means other people have to go out. Many businesses are keeping people at the office until they can beef up their VPN before letting folks work from home, while also saying that people are their priority. As If. Our inability to think outside the box of capitalism and our refusal to just sit TF down and chill does not afford me much hope that suppression is going to work well
Lot of hot takes here to get clicks and likes. Summarizing actual science to get to the scariest conclusion to create fear and pandemonium. I’ll get downvoted, but I’m right.
But you do understand there is no easy way out right? If facts scare people, than the reality is what's wrong, not the messenger. This is not just extracting some statements from science, this is, exactly what you're calling it, summarizing. And the conclusion is we're royally forked.
Load More Replies...But what if we did all the precautions and your numbers were off (high) by 60-70%? What if we did nothing and human bodies develop a resistance over several months, and COVid becomes inert? I know we can't take the chance of your highest estimate, so the current plan is in place, but what if you are wrong? Was ruining the economy and scaring three hundred million people worth it? What if the numbers are still so low because the disease isn't as bad as you are telling us?
What does it matter, it could have started anywhere and noone knew how to react, look at US president pretending nothing happened for so long. If it started in the US it would have been much worse.
Load More Replies...No it isn't - I'm from London/England and most of us are self/family isolating, a lot of tube lines have been shut down, universities have kicked out their students and schools will be closing on Friday. We may a few steps behind but we're not doing nothing.
Load More Replies...I belive you have no idea of what´s going on, and still you are worried about you economy. Bad for you.
Load More Replies...
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